Global financial conditions are shifting rapidly, with new policy actions and market breakouts pointing to a significant inflection in the metals landscape. From structural shifts in gold demand to silver’s long-awaited breakout, the latest developments offer meaningful insights for those focused on long-term wealth preservation through tangible assets.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS Say ‘Buy Gold’ Amid Tariff and Inflation Pressures
Three of the world’s leading financial institutions—Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS—are strengthening their stance on gold. In response to rising tariffs, a weaker dollar, and persistent inflationary trends, these firms are elevating their gold price forecasts and identifying long-term bullish patterns driven by central bank acquisitions, ETF demand, and off-balance sheet flows.
Overview:
- Morgan Stanley considers recent tariffs a short-term drag on economic growth but a long-term catalyst for hard assets, forecasting gold to reach $3,800 by Q4 and average $3,500 in 2025.
- Goldman Sachs projects $3,700 by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026, citing central bank accumulation and ETF inflows as core drivers.
- UBS anticipates that tariff rates will stabilize near 15%, while maintaining a strategic position in gold.
Why This Matters:
With demand surging across multiple channels—especially from central banks and institutional allocations—gold’s role as a store of value continues to gain traction. These forecasts underscore growing conviction in the utility of gold amid a volatile and uncertain macro environment.
Silver’s Bull Market Officially Kicks Off After Breakout Above Key Resistance
After years of consolidation, silver has definitively moved above its multi-year resistance band of $32–$35, rising sharply to near $39/oz last Friday with a 4.42% gain. This movement—confirmed by similar breakouts in euro silver and related industrial metals—marks what many are calling the official start of a new silver bull cycle.
Breakout Drivers:
- Strong volume and momentum on futures exchanges
- Confirmed euro silver breakout above €31–€32
- Jesse Colombo’s Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI) surged alongside a copper rally past $5.20
- Silver remains structurally supported by a persistent supply deficit (182M oz in 2024; 117.6M oz projected for 2025) and strong industrial demand from clean energy and tech sectors
Outlook:
The gold-to-silver ratio remains elevated at 87.3, well above the historical average of 53, suggesting ample room for silver to play catch-up. With above-ground stockpiles shrinking and technical momentum accelerating, many see $50/oz as a realistic near-term milestone.
Trump’s Tariffs Begin to Show Up in Inflation Data
June’s CPI report indicated a 0.3% month-over-month increase and 2.7% annual rate—the highest in four months. Tariff-sensitive categories like toys, appliances, apparel, and electronics are experiencing some of the sharpest gains, with inventories accumulated prior to tariff hikes now being depleted.
Inflation Data Points:
- Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM / +2.7% YoY
- Core CPI: +0.2% MoM / +2.9% YoY
- Notable category moves:
- Appliances: +1.9%
- Toys: +1.4% (for second month)
- Video equipment: +4.5% (record)
- Linens/home textiles: +4.2%
- Tools/hardware: +0.7%
- Appliances: +1.9%
Analysis:
While overall inflation remains within a manageable range, the early effects of new tariffs are becoming visible. As companies restock at higher prices, market participants will closely monitor whether broader cost increases follow in the second half of the year.
Weekly Market Recap: July 14–18, 2025
Monday – July 14
Gold and silver pulled back slightly amid profit-taking, with August gold down $10.90 to $3,353.90 and September silver easing $0.32 to $38.635. The broader market remained cautious following new tariff announcements from the administration—30% on EU goods and up to 35% on Canadian and Mexican imports.
Tuesday – July 15
Gold climbed $9.40 to $3,346.10 and silver added $0.165 to $38.275. A quiet market tone prevailed ahead of Wednesday’s packed data slate. U.S. dollar softness and stable oil supported a calm environment for metals.
Wednesday – July 16
Gold spiked nearly $50 midday on rumors surrounding Fed Chair Powell’s potential removal before settling up $22.40 at $3,359.10. Silver held firm at $38.16. Markets took the producer price index in stride and adjusted after clarification from President Trump.
Thursday – July 17
Gold dipped $15.20 to $3,343.90, while silver slipped $0.131 to $38.245. Equities rose, reducing short-term safe-haven flows. Strength in the dollar also weighed on metals amid continued light summer volume.
Friday – July 18
Both metals gained early, with gold rising $16.80 to $3,362.20 and silver advancing $0.442 to $38.745. A softer U.S. dollar, firmer crude oil, and slight easing in Treasury yields helped drive buying interest as earnings optimism lifted broader markets.
Upcoming Economic Calendar: July 21–25, 2025
| Day | Event |
| Monday | U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (June) |
| Tuesday | Fed Chair Powell Remarks at Banking Conference |
| Wednesday | Existing Home Sales (June) |
| Thursday | Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending July 19) |
| S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI (July) | |
| S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI (July) | |
| New Home Sales (June) | |
| Friday | Durable Goods Orders (June) |
Impact on Precious Metals
- Monday – U.S. Leading Indicators: A decline could heighten concerns over economic momentum, reinforcing interest in gold and silver. A stronger reading may dampen demand for safe-haven assets.
- Tuesday – Powell’s Remarks: A hawkish tone may pressure metals by supporting the dollar and yields. A dovish message could support higher metal prices.
- Wednesday – Existing Home Sales: Slower sales may hint at cooling demand and bolster gold and silver. A robust number may reduce safe-haven appeal.
- Thursday – Labor & PMI Reports: Softening jobless claims or weak PMI data may prompt renewed attention to gold and silver as economic resilience is questioned.
- Friday – Durable Goods Orders: Slower growth in business investment could steer capital toward tangible stores of value, supporting metals further.
Explore More with Prime Assets
As the financial system undergoes pivotal shifts, the case for physical precious metals continues to build. Whether you’re watching economic data, tracking supply deficits, or analyzing technical breakouts, staying informed is key to long-term financial resilience.
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