This past week underscored how quickly narratives can shift in today’s financial environment. As always, our focus remains on what truly matters: preserving purchasing power and navigating uncertainty with clarity. Below, we unpack how gold and silver responded to July’s inflation data, market sentiment, and upcoming economic events—and what it all means for those committed to tangible wealth.
Market Recap: August 11 – 15, 2025
Monday – 8.11.25
Gold and silver prices moved lower on Monday as questions around U.S. tariffs on bullion imports unsettled markets. December gold shed $81.80 to close at $3,409.70, while September silver fell $0.702 to $37.845. The dip followed a strong Friday rally, but with no clear long-term direction from the White House, many chose caution. Joseph Cavatoni of the World Gold Council noted that despite the volatility, underlying market mechanics remained stable.
January? We worried about tariffs.
April? We calmed down about tariffs.
August? We just got worried about tariffs!
What’s next? Busy day. Stay tuned and keep buying gold.#tariffs #gold
— Joseph Cavatoni (@JCavatoni_WGC) August 8, 2025
Tuesday – 8.12.25
Markets absorbed July’s CPI report with a measured response. Gold dipped $5.90 to $3,399.20, while silver added $0.223 to finish at $38.01. CPI came in softer than expected, suggesting moderation in consumer-level inflation, though not a decisive signal for monetary easing. Meanwhile, confirmation that gold would remain tariff-exempt helped ease some of Monday’s concerns.
Wednesday – 8.13.25
Weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields supported a rally in precious metals midweek. Gold gained $13.80 to reach $3,412.30, and silver rose $0.553 to $38.55. Markets continued to weigh the possibility of a September rate cut, with the inflation picture viewed as manageable, though persistent.
Thursday – 8.14.25
Producer prices surprised to the upside, placing renewed pressure on metals. December gold fell $20.70 to $3,388.00, and silver declined $0.552 to $38.04. The 0.9% monthly gain in PPI—the strongest since June 2022—shifted expectations, making a smaller September rate cut more likely while eliminating hopes for a larger move.
Friday – 8.15.25
Gold inched up $4.90 to $3,388.20 on Friday as the U.S. dollar softened again, but silver declined slightly to $37.88. While hot PPI numbers earlier in the week had dampened the dovish outlook, expectations for a September rate cut remained intact, albeit more modest in scope.
Wholesale Inflation Heats Up, Tempering Rate Cut Hopes
The PPI data for July delivered a clear signal: wholesale inflation remains embedded across key sectors, particularly services. Markets reacted swiftly, reassessing the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. Spot gold dipped slightly on the day, but some analysts maintained their outlook for a rebound should broader economic conditions soften.
By the Numbers:
- Headline PPI (MoM): +0.9%
- Headline PPI (YoY): +3.3%
- Core PPI (MoM): +0.9%
- Core PPI (YoY): +2.8%
- Final demand services: +1.1%
- Spot gold: $3,350.40/oz (−0.14%)
- Analyst forecast range (with elevated recession risk): $3,450–$3,500
Longer term, the dual force of persistent inflation and slower growth—historically known as stagflation—has tended to favor tangible stores of value like physical precious metals.
CPI STABLE, BUT DATA QUALITY DRAWS ATTENTION
July’s CPI results brought some reassurance, with headline inflation aligning with forecasts and gasoline prices falling. Yet deeper in the report, questions about the quality of the data took precedence.
Due to budget cuts and layoffs at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over one-third of CPI figures were based on imputed data rather than actual survey collection—up significantly from last year. This raises uncertainty just as people rely on these benchmarks to make informed decisions.
By the Numbers:
- Headline CPI (MoM): +0.2%
- Headline CPI (YoY): +2.7%
- Core CPI (MoM): +0.3%
- Core CPI (YoY): +3.1%
- Gasoline: −2.2%
- Airline fares: +4.0%
- Household furnishings: +0.7%
- Data imputation share: 35% (June 2025), up from 8% (June 2024)
As traditional data sources face limitations, physical assets may serve as a more stable reference point for those seeking to measure long-term value.
ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE IN FOCUS WITH BLS LEADERSHIP CHANGE
The nomination of economist E.J. Antoni to lead the BLS has raised discussions about the direction and independence of U.S. economic reporting. Antoni’s previous critiques of inflation and jobs data—alongside proposed reforms to reduce reporting frequency—have drawn both support and concern.
While no immediate changes have taken place, markets are sensitive to any shifts that could impact how key data is collected and presented.
By the Numbers:
- Nominee: E.J. Antoni (Heritage Foundation)
- Former role: Chief Economist, Hermann Center for the Federal Budget
- Proposed policy: Replace monthly jobs data with quarterly reports
- Academic credential: Ph.D., Northern Illinois University
- Prior BLS head: Erika McEntarfer (dismissed Aug. 2025)
The structure and transparency of economic institutions remain essential to broader market confidence. As leadership evolves, many will be watching to see how these roles are fulfilled.
LOOKING AHEAD: AUGUST 18 – 22, 2025
A series of important economic updates is on deck next week, offering fresh insight into housing, labor, and manufacturing trends.
Monday – August 18
- None scheduled
Tuesday – August 19
- 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts & Permits (July)
Wednesday – August 20
- 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes (May Meeting)
Thursday – August 21
- 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
- 9:45 AM ET: S&P Flash Services PMI (August)
- 9:45 AM ET: S&P Flash Manufacturing PMI (August)
- 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (July)
- 10:00 AM ET: U.S. Leading Economic Indicators
Friday – August 22
- None scheduled
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
Here’s how next week’s events could shape the gold and silver landscape:
- Housing Starts & Permits (Tuesday):
- Stronger data: Could reduce safe-haven interest.
- Weaker data: May support metals on slowdown concerns.
- FOMC Minutes (Wednesday):
- Hawkish tone: Often bearish for metals.
- Dovish tone: May strengthen gold and silver.
- Jobless Claims (Thursday):
- Rising claims: May lift demand for safe-haven assets.
- Falling claims: Could weigh on precious metals.
- Philadelphia Fed Survey / PMIs:
- Robust readings: May dampen demand for metals.
- Weakness: Could renew focus on tangible assets.
- Existing Home Sales / LEI (Thursday):
- Positive numbers: Likely bearish for metals.
- Negative trends: Typically supportive of gold and silver.
Continue Building Real Wealth
In uncertain conditions, the path to resilience remains rooted in tangible value. Gold and silver offer a form of wealth that doesn’t rely on shifting forecasts, data revisions, or institutional narratives.
Explore more at Prime Assets—and discover how to reinforce your financial foundation with physical precious metals. Or call (866) 706-8781 to learn how to qualify for free shipping and insurance on orders over $5,000.
