Markets navigated a volatile stretch last week as geopolitical developments, shifting economic data, and evolving expectations around Federal Reserve policy influenced trading across asset classes. Gold began the week on firm footing before encountering pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and rising yields, only to regain ground later as economic data reshaped expectations for interest-rate policy.
The coming days now carry heightened significance. With key inflation indicators on the horizon—including the Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE measure—markets are closely monitoring signals that could influence the next move in interest rates, currencies, and precious metals.
Weekly Market Recap
Monday (3.02.26):
Gold edged higher early Monday before retreating from overnight highs as the U.S. dollar climbed to a five-week high and Treasury yields strengthened, creating headwinds for precious metals. April gold was still ahead by roughly $65 near $5,311 but sat nearly $100 below its overnight peak, while March silver declined about $4.88 to around $87.65 as short-term positions were trimmed. In the broader backdrop, rising oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions revived inflation concerns, prompting markets to reassess expectations for interest-rate reductions across major economies. That shift strengthened the dollar and pushed yields upward, conditions that typically weigh on metals in the near term.
Tuesday (3.03.26):
Gold and silver moved lower Tuesday as the U.S. dollar surged to a nine-month high while Treasury yields continued climbing, drawing capital toward cash and fixed-income assets. April gold fell about $191 to near $5,121, and March silver slid $5.70 to around $82.60. The move occurred even as geopolitical tensions remained elevated, with reports suggesting Iran may deploy low-cost drones intended to strain missile defenses and potentially disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s key energy corridors.
Wednesday (3.04.26):
Gold and silver rebounded Wednesday as safe-haven demand resurfaced amid intensifying conflict in the Middle East. April gold rose approximately $37 to about $5,160, while March silver added roughly $0.61 to near $83.49. Both metals eased from intraday highs as short-term traders locked in gains. Geopolitical developments often prompt defensive positioning in precious metals, though intraday volatility can remain elevated as markets adjust to rapidly evolving news.
Thursday (3.05.26):
Gold and silver softened Thursday as a strengthening U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields diminished earlier safe-haven demand tied to the Iran conflict. April gold slipped roughly $61 to around $5,073, while March silver declined about $1.60 to near $81. Market attention also turned to a geopolitical development involving Venezuela’s state miner Minerven, which finalized a deal allowing sales of up to 1,000 kilograms of gold to Trafigura for refining in the United States—illustrating how political dynamics and commodity supply chains remain closely connected.
Friday (3.06.26):
Gold and silver ticked higher Friday morning as markets awaited the February U.S. employment report, one of the most closely watched economic releases of the month. April gold gained roughly $18 to around $5,097 while May silver edged upward as safe-haven demand persisted alongside the escalating Iran conflict. The geopolitical backdrop has also begun affecting global trade, with shipping disruptions contributing to discounted Dubai gold prices and tighter energy markets. Brent crude has climbed above $86 per barrel, and U.S. gasoline prices recently reached their highest levels in roughly two and a half years as supply concerns intensified.
Gold jumps as weak jobs report boosts rate-cut bets
The big picture
Gold prices advanced after U.S. labor market data for February came in weaker than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to consider lowering interest rates later this year.
Driving the news
U.S. nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 jobs in February, sharply missing forecasts that anticipated roughly 58,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.4% from 4.3%. The softer data prompted markets to reassess the outlook for monetary policy, lifting gold prices as lower interest-rate expectations tend to support non-yielding assets.
By the numbers
- –92,000 — change in U.S. nonfarm payrolls during February
• 58,000 — jobs economists projected would be added
• 4.4% — February unemployment rate, up from 4.3% in January
• $5,128 — approximate spot gold price following the report, nearly 1% higher on the day
Why it matters
Gold often benefits when economic indicators suggest slowing growth because weaker conditions can increase the likelihood of interest-rate reductions. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and can place downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
What to watch
- Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations
• Upcoming labor-market indicators
• Treasury yields and U.S. dollar movements
• Safe-haven demand tied to global geopolitical developments
The bottom line
Unexpected weakness in the labor market renewed bullish momentum in gold as markets began pricing in the possibility that softer economic conditions could lead to additional policy easing later this year.
Iran conflict threatens new strain on fragile global supply chains
The big picture
Escalating tensions involving Iran are adding pressure to global supply chains that have already been strained by years of disruptions, raising the potential for ripple effects across shipping, energy flows, and trade.
Driving the news
Iran has signaled potential threats to shipping traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical energy routes—while drone strikes have disrupted liquefied natural gas production in Qatar. At the same time, earlier attacks by Houthi forces redirected container vessels away from the Suez Canal, forcing many ships to travel around Africa and significantly lengthening delivery times.
By the numbers
- ~20% — share of global oil supply that typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz
• Weeks — estimated timeframe required to restart disrupted LNG production in Qatar
• Thousands of miles — additional distance ships travel when rerouting around Africa
• Years — duration that global supply chains have faced ongoing disruptions
Why it matters
Even if direct economic impacts on the United States remain limited, global trade networks are deeply interconnected. Disruptions in shipping routes or energy supplies can quickly influence transportation costs, fuel prices, and the price of imported goods.
What to watch
- Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz
• Recovery timeline for LNG production in Qatar
• Container routes around the Suez Canal
• Global oil and natural gas prices
• Freight costs and shipping rates
The bottom line
Supply chains remain less resilient after years of global disruptions. Continued conflict in the Middle East could contribute to higher transportation costs and energy prices that ripple through the broader global economy.
Gold’s long-term rise remains intact despite dollar safe-haven demand
The big picture
While the U.S. dollar often attracts safe-haven demand during periods of geopolitical stress, economist Thorsten Polleit believes the broader upward trend in gold and silver remains supported by structural economic factors.
Driving the news
Recent geopolitical tensions and financial uncertainty have encouraged markets to favor highly liquid assets such as the U.S. dollar and Treasurys. According to Polleit, these shifts reflect short-term liquidity preferences rather than a fundamental change in the long-term outlook for precious metals.
By the numbers
- $5,000 — approximate level where gold has repeatedly found price support
• $8,000 — potential gold price target suggested within the next five years
• 2–3 years — investment horizon suggested for accumulating metals
• $354 trillion — estimated total global public and private debt
• $38 trillion — current U.S. sovereign debt level
Why it matters
Polleit argues that the global economy continues to operate in an environment defined by expanding government debt, persistent inflation pressures, and periodic monetary intervention. Over time, these dynamics may gradually reduce the purchasing power of fiat currencies and sustain demand for hard assets.
What to watch
- Central bank liquidity programs and policy decisions
• Government debt growth and fiscal deficits
• Geopolitical developments affecting economic stability
• Shifts between cash and tangible asset allocations
• Long-term institutional interest in precious metals
The bottom line
Short-term volatility may occasionally favor cash and dollar assets, but the structural forces supporting gold and silver—including global debt expansion and monetary policy trends—remain in place.
Trump backs crypto firms in escalating battle with banks over stablecoin yields
The big picture
A growing dispute between cryptocurrency companies and major U.S. banks over whether stablecoins should be allowed to offer yield-like returns is evolving into a significant regulatory debate that could shape the future of digital money.
Driving the news
President Donald Trump recently voiced support for the crypto industry in its disagreement with banks over proposed rules governing stablecoin yields. The debate is tied to legislation including the Clarity Act and the earlier Genius Act, which address how stablecoins may operate within the financial system.
By the numbers
- $6.6 trillion — potential bank deposit outflows if stablecoins offer yield, according to a Treasury study
• 15% — intraday increase in Coinbase shares after Trump’s comments
• <1% — decline in shares of major banks including JPMorgan and Bank of America
• Hundreds of millions — estimated wealth tied to Trump family crypto interests
• Trillions — deposits banks warn could migrate toward yield-bearing stablecoins
Why it matters
Banks argue that allowing crypto firms to offer yield on stablecoins could effectively create lightly regulated banking alternatives, potentially drawing deposits away from traditional financial institutions. Crypto companies contend that yield-bearing stablecoins represent financial innovation that could broaden access to digital payment systems.
What to watch
- Congressional progress on the Clarity Act and related legislation
• Negotiations between banks and crypto firms over yield rules
• Regulatory standards for stablecoin reserves
• Institutional adoption of stablecoins for payments and savings
• Political scrutiny surrounding digital-asset investments
The bottom line
The debate surrounding stablecoin yields has become a high-stakes discussion about who may shape the next phase of digital finance, with implications for banking deposits and the rapidly expanding cryptocurrency ecosystem.
NEXT WEEK’S KEY EVENTS
Economic Calendar: March 9 – March 13, 2026 (ET)
MONDAY, March 9
• None scheduled
TUESDAY, March 10
• 10:00 am — Existing Home Sales (Feb.)
WEDNESDAY, March 11
• 8:30 am — Consumer Price Index (Feb.)
THURSDAY, March 12
• 8:30 am — Initial Jobless Claims (March 7)
FRIDAY, March 13
• 8:30 am — GDP (First Revision) (Q4)
• 8:30 am — PCE Index (Jan.)
• 10:00 am — JOLTS (Jan.)
• 10:00 am — Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) (March)
NA — Not available
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
Existing Home Sales (Tue, 10:00 am ET)
- Stronger-than-expected sales → signals resilience in the housing market and consumer demand; mildly bearish for gold and silver.
- Weaker sales → suggests slowing housing activity and softer economic momentum; mildly supportive for metals.
Housing activity is closely tied to interest rates and consumer confidence, making it a useful indicator of economic conditions.
Consumer Price Index (Wed, 8:30 am ET)
- Higher inflation reading → reinforces expectations for tighter monetary policy; bearish for gold and silver.
- Lower inflation reading → may increase the probability of policy easing; supportive for metals.
CPI remains one of the most influential inflation indicators shaping rate expectations.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 8:30 am ET)
- Rising claims → may indicate softening labor conditions; supportive for metals.
- Persistently low claims → suggests ongoing labor-market strength; mildly bearish for metals.
Weekly jobless claims provide high-frequency insight into labor-market trends.
GDP (First Revision) (Fri, 8:30 am ET)
- Upward growth revision → supports the view of a stronger economy; bearish for metals.
- Downward revision → raises concerns about slowing growth; supportive for metals.
GDP revisions can shift perceptions of economic momentum depending on the magnitude of the change.
PCE Index (Fri, 8:30 am ET)
- Higher inflation reading → suggests persistent inflation and tighter policy expectations; bearish for metals.
- Lower inflation reading → could reinforce expectations for policy flexibility; supportive for metals.
The PCE Index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
JOLTS (Fri, 10:00 am ET)
- Elevated job openings → signals strong labor demand; bearish for metals.
- Declining openings → suggests cooling employment demand; supportive for metals.
JOLTS data provides insight into hiring trends and labor demand.
Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) (Fri, 10:00 am ET)
- Improving sentiment → indicates confidence in economic conditions; mildly bearish for metals.
- Falling sentiment → reflects uncertainty about economic outlook; mildly supportive for metals.
Consumer sentiment can influence spending expectations and the broader growth outlook.
Continue the Conversation
Understanding the forces shaping precious metals markets requires staying informed about economic trends, monetary policy, and global developments.
To explore deeper insights, educational resources, and market perspectives on gold and silver, visit the Prime Asset Group website and continue learning about the role of physical precious metals in today’s evolving financial landscape.
