The current moment demands attention: with markets reaching new highs, central-bank signals looming, and fiscal uncertainty clouding outlooks, what happens next matters deeply. This week’s events could recalibrate expectations—stay informed.
Monday – 9.29.25
Gold and silver opened the week on a strong footing. December gold rose by $47.00 to $3,855.80 (a fresh record), while December silver climbed $0.434 to $47.09, its strongest in 14 years. Heightened demand for safe assets gained traction amid the threat of a midweek U.S. government shutdown, which applied downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Congressional leaders planned talks with the President over short-term funding, but deep partisan divides on healthcare subsidies and spending cuts kept resolution uncertain. The looming shutdown and the threat to federal workers’ pay added urgency, bolstering gains in precious metals.
Tuesday – 9.30.25
Momentum in gold continued, with December gold adding $12.70 to reach $3,867.40, though gains cooled by midday as market participants digested soft U.S. data and shutdown fears. Silver, meanwhile, experienced some profit-taking and dipped $0.481 to $46.53. U.S. consumer confidence fell to a five‑month low amid concerns over jobs and growth, even as JOLTS data showed a modest rise in job openings. In a backdrop of political gridlock and an imminent shutdown, uncertainty provided a persistent tailwind for metals despite silver’s retreat.
Wednesday – 10.01.25
Midday trading brought fresh highs: gold up $21.50 to $3,894.40 (a new record) and silver up $0.935 to $47.585 (14‑year peak). Entry into official shutdown status for the U.S. government heightened demand for safe havens. A disappointing ADP jobs report reinforced expectations that monetary policy could soften. Gold now hovers close to the $4,000 mark, posting gains of over 48 % year‑to‑date — the strongest annual run since 1979 — while silver draws attention as it approaches its own all-time peaks.
Thursday – 10.02.25
Profit-taking weighed on both metals mid‑session. December gold was lower by $47.20 at $3,850.00, and silver tumbled $1.674 to $46.015. A stronger dollar and weaker crude prices added headwinds. The resulting “key reversal” price action hints at potential near-term resistance. Meanwhile, the federal shutdown intensified: the administration froze $18 billion in infrastructure funding and threatened large-scale federal layoffs. Analysts warn the standoff could cost about $400 million daily, weaken corporate confidence, and damp investment — even as equity markets continue to flirt with records.
Friday – 10.03.25
Gold and silver resumed their climb early Friday. December gold rose $18.10 to $3,886.00, while silver jumped $1.081 to $47.445 — hovering near Thursday’s peaks. Safe-haven demand remained firmly in place as the third day of the U.S. government shutdown stretched onward. With no breakthrough in funding talks and threats to federal employment escalating, the impasse may extend into next week. Global markets presented mixed signals overnight, and U.S. equities are poised to open modestly higher.
JPMorgan: Demand for Gold and Bitcoin as a ‘Debasement Trade’
The big picture
JPMorgan analysts recently coined the rally in gold — and to a lesser degree Bitcoin — a “debasement trade.” The thesis: market participants, concerned by deficits, inflation, and geopolitical risks, are seeking shelter in tangible assets as confidence in fiat systems wanes.
What’s happening
JPMorgan notes that everyday market participants increasingly display a FOMO-driven adoption of alternative assets. According to the bank, this dynamic stems from elevated geopolitical tension, high government deficits, doubts about central-bank independence, and eroding trust in fiat currencies — especially outside developed markets.
Gold’s retreat from highs near $3,900 has been modest, and it still trades up over 40 % this year. Bitcoin has moved past $120,000, while silver’s momentum — rising more than 60 % year-to-date — reflects sustained interest even as it contends with resistance around $48.
Between the lines
Far from new, the “debasement trade” aligns with central banks’ own diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, a trend visible since 2022. In that period, global gold reserves rose by roughly 1,000 tonnes. This summer, gold even overtook the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset.
Retail demand ramps up
Central banks may lead the way, but retail activity is catching up. In September, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) saw inflows of 35.2 tonnes — a record month — including a one-day influx of 18.9 tonnes. Even so, cumulative holdings still lag 2020 highs, and speculative futures positioning remains below prior peaks. That leaves room for further upside.
By the numbers
- $3,847.30 — latest spot gold price, up more than 40 % YTD
- $120,000+ — Bitcoin’s current level, up ~28.6 % YTD
- $46.68 — spot silver, up more than 60 % YTD
- 1,000 tonnes — growth in global gold reserves since 2022
- 18.9 tonnes — record one‑day GLD inflow
The bottom line
While gains have been significant, JPMorgan argues the debasement trend may yet be in its early phases. With central banks continuing to accumulate, retail demand accelerating, and structural deficits showing no signs of retreat, gold — and selective hard assets — may still have upward room.
Fed President Warns Inflation Is ‘Going the Wrong Way’ as Tariff Concerns Mount
The big picture
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cautions that inflation has stopped easing—and may be ticking upward. That shift increases the odds of a stagflation scenario, where inflation and unemployment worsen simultaneously, leaving policy makers limited tools.
What’s happening
Speaking at a Midwest agriculture conference, Goolsbee admitted he once expected inflation to drift toward the Fed’s 2 % target. But recent increases suggest a different trajectory: “it’s going the wrong way.” He warned that persistent inflation, as seen in 2021–22, would complicate the Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and full employment.
Why it matters
Under typical conditions, one mandate improves while the other weakens. But if both inflation and labor stress intensify, Goolsbee observed, the policy path becomes unclear.
Fed Chair Powell has signaled that the Fed will prioritize whichever objective is furthest from target. Still, that balancing act leaves no risk-free approach. Cuts might boost growth but fan inflation; tightening might calm prices but weaken labor markets.
Tariff troubles
Goolsbee flagged tariffs as a persistent wildcard. He laid out his “11 % lane” notion — about 11 % of U.S. GDP comes from goods imports (2024 basis). If tariffs remain confined to final goods, effects may be contained. But expansion into intermediate goods could raise business costs and amplify inflation pressures.
Rising services inflation adds to his concern. Tariff mechanics don’t fully explain rising service prices, suggesting broader, sticky inflation dynamics.
Between the lines
Goolsbee hopes the uptick in prices is temporary. But if tariffs spread further and services inflation remains firm, the Fed could be forced into an increasingly difficult stance.
By the numbers
- 4.5 years — duration inflation has remained above 2 %
- 2 % — Fed’s official inflation target
- 11 % — share of U.S. GDP tied to goods imports (in Goolsbee’s framework)
- September 2025 — latest date when the Fed trimmed rates
- Record highs — equity markets continue to test long‑term resistance
The bottom line
Goolsbee’s shift in tone introduces fresh complexity. If inflation proves stickier than anticipated — and tariffs intensify — the Fed could be pushed into a tighter stance even as growth shows cracks.
$100 Silver: Boom or Bust for the White Metal?
The big picture
Talk of silver reaching $100 per ounce has resurfaced. While that’s an ambitious target, some fundamentals and market dynamics make it more than wishful speculation.
Why $100 silver isn’t crazy
Silver’s production deficits, rising demand in solar, EVs, AI, and tech electronics all point to structural stress. Meanwhile, the gold-to-silver ratio sits near 80:1, far above its historical average of ~15:1. If gold continues higher, silver might be due for a catch-up. And if physical markets confront systemic pressures — including paper-market manipulation — investors may push demand for delivery, triggering squeezes.
What could trigger the run
A catalyst could be anything from a major tech firm securing physical silver, a delivery failure at COMEX, a severe recession triggering fresh monetary stimulus, or broad loss of fiat confidence. Historically, runs often accelerate swiftly once momentum builds.
Why most people will miss it
Often, people enter late — after silver is already trending toward $75 or above. Premiums surge, supply tightens, and entry becomes costly just when upside is most vivid.
By the numbers
- $50 — silver’s approximate peaks in 1980 and 2011
- 80:1 — current gold-to-silver ratio
- 3–5 years — horizon suggested by some bulls for a potential move toward $100
The bottom line
While timing remains uncertain, $100 silver is not outlandish. If gold maintains its ascent and silver’s fundamentals widen, positioning early may prove critical.
Fed Chief Powell Says Stock Prices Appear ‘Fairly Highly Valued’
The big picture
Markets have cheered the Fed’s recent rate cut, but Powell’s remark that equities appear “fairly highly valued” introduces a note of caution.
He didn’t signal systemic peril, but his warning reminds readers that central banks are watching asset prices closely.
Driving the news
Speaking in Providence, Powell emphasized that the Fed monitors financial conditions broadly — including equity valuations — to assess policy direction.
“By many measures, equity prices are fairly highly valued,” he said.
Between the lines
Powell struck a balancing tone:
- Yes, valuations are elevated.
- But risks remain under control, in his view.
In essence, the Fed isn’t raising an alarm yet — but it is attentive.
By the numbers
- 0.25 percentage point — size of the most recent rate adjustment
- Sept. 17, 2025 — date of the last FOMC meeting
- Record highs — many equity benchmarks have reached new peaks
Why it matters
Powell’s comments might temper exuberance. While liquidity and sentiment remain supportive, central-bank caution could shift momentum — especially if rate cuts stall or reverse.
The bottom line
The Fed continues to assert it can navigate elevated valuations without triggering instability. But as markets push higher, Powell’s tone suggests the path forward may not be entirely smooth.
Next Week’s Key Events
Economic Calendar: October 6 – October 10, 2025 (ET)
- Monday, Oct. 6 — None scheduled
- Tuesday, Oct. 7 — 3:00 PM: Consumer Credit (Aug)
- Wednesday, Oct. 8 — 2:00 PM: Minutes of Fed’s September FOMC meeting
- Thursday, Oct. 9 — 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Oct. 4)
- Friday, Oct. 10 — 9:45 AM: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee’s opening remarks
10:00 AM: Preliminary Consumer Sentiment (Oct)
Impact on Precious Metals Markets
- Consumer Credit (Tue): Rising credit would suggest borrowing strength and lean toward risk-seeking behavior, which may weigh on precious metals.
- FOMC Minutes (Wed): A hawkish tone could cool demand, whereas dovish leanings could bolster metals.
- Initial Jobless Claims (Thu): A jump in claims signals labor stress, which supports metals; a decline signals resilience, which may pressure them.
- Goolsbee Remarks (Fri): Hawkish commentary = caution; dovish commentary = tailwind.
- Consumer Sentiment (Fri): Elevated sentiment suggests confidence and risk appetite (less favorable for metals); weak sentiment suggests caution and possible safe-haven demand.
Call to Action
These developments are unfolding in real time, and clarity often emerges only in hindsight. To stay ahead of market shifts, continue exploring curated analysis, insights, and reports on our website. Visit PrimeAssets.com and deepen your understanding of how physical assets can play a pivotal role in your strategy.
