This week centers on one pivotal data release: the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index report, which could reshape directional expectations for gold and silver. We emphasize tangible wealth and clarity, and this moment could prove decisive for precious‑metals momentum.
Market Recap
Monday – 11.17.25:
Gold and silver dipped mid‑day as participants held back ahead of major catalysts. December gold declined $30.50 to $4,063.80 and silver fell $0.231 to $50.45. Sentiment was dampened by remarks from Jeffrey Gundlach, who flagged elevated risks in lending and stretched equity valuations reminiscent of 2006. A deeper market wobble could revive attention to tangible assets.
Tuesday – 11.18.25:
Both metals were modestly lower by mid‑day — gold down $19.70 to $4,054.80, silver down $0.296 to $50.42 — before bouncing from intraday lows. A quiet addition of 15 tons of gold by China in September (part of a global 64‑ton central bank buy) underscores ongoing physical demand. Meanwhile, global stocks slid on concerns about slowing growth and elevated AI‑sector build‑outs; Bitcoin falling below $90,000 added to risk‑off tone. A sharper equity retreat remains a potential trigger for increased safe‑haven interest.
Wednesday – 11.19.25:
Gold rebounded to $4,091.40 (up $25.30), silver leapt to $51.415 (up $0.904) by mid‑day as safe‑haven flows ticked up amid a shaky U.S. equity market. A strong dollar though limited upside. With delayed data now entering the market, concern is rising that the Federal Reserve may have less flexibility than markets expected. Goldman Sachs President John Waldron pointed out stretched valuations and AI‑uncertainty as headwinds.
Thursday – 11.20.25:
Metals slipped amid a stronger‑than‑anticipated jobs report and a rebound in equities. September payrolls jumped 119,000 against 50,000 expected; unemployment nudged up to 4.4%; October’s report was cancelled due to missing data. These developments cooled hopes of a December rate cut. December gold fell $15.30 to $4,067.00, silver dropped $0.279 to $50.545.
Friday – 11.21.25:
Gold held near unchanged early U.S. trade (~$4,060.00, up $0.30); silver declined sharply (~$49.18, down $1.14). Attention remains on U.S. stock‑market volatility after Thursday’s sharp reversals and the impact this might have on demand for physical assets.
December Rate Cut in Doubt as Fed Minutes Show Policymaker Split
The big picture
The Fed’s upcoming December meeting appears more contested than expected. Minutes reveal a clear split among policymakers around delivering a third straight rate cut — driven by a cooling labour market, persistent inflation, and tariff pass‑through concerns.
Driving the news
Rates currently sit at 3.75%–4% after cuts in September and October. But in their October meeting, participants expressed “strongly differing views” on the path ahead. Some believed further easing would eventually be appropriate, while others argued a December cut “may well be appropriate” only if conditions evolved favourably — and many preferred holding rates steady for year‑end. Tariff effects continue to filter into consumer prices, adding uncertainty to inflation dynamics. One point of agreement: policy isn’t on “a preset course,” and outcomes will hinge on incoming data.
By the numbers
- 3.75%–4%: current target for federal funds rate
- 2 cuts: consecutive 25‑bp reductions this fall
- 119K: September jobs added (delayed)
- 43.8%: market‑implied probability of a December cut
- 98.8% → 43.8%: collapse in December‑cut expectations from previous month
Why it matters
A divided Fed heightens uncertainty in rate policy at a time when inflation remains above target and labour dynamics are softening — an environment that may increase market volatility as participants reassess growth/macro risk and the outlook for real assets.
What to watch
- Incoming labour and inflation data — how they influence the rate outlook
- Tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell ahead of the December decision
- How tariff pass‑through into consumer prices evolves
- Changes in market‑implied odds for easing into 2026
The bottom line
The Fed no longer appears unified. With inflation elevated and consensus fraying, the notion of a December rate cut is far from assured — and markets are recalibrating accordingly.
Jobs Report Revision Flips Trump‑Era Gain to Loss — And It’s Fueling Weaker Sentiment
The big picture
Revisions to summer employment data now show that gains under former President Donald Trump were overstated. August’s previously reported gain was revised into a loss — a change troubling for overall labour‑market confidence and voter sentiment.
Driving the news
The delayed September report revealed July’s figure was revised down from +79,000 to +72,000, while August swung from +22,000 to –4,000. Federal employment has fallen by 97,000 since January, though furloughed workers remain counted as employed under BLS methodology. A poll finds 76% of voters now rating the economy negatively, up from 67% in July; significantly, nearly twice as many hold Trump rather than President Joe Biden responsible for current conditions. Trump’s dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after large downward revisions only adds to the optics. The delayed nature of the October report (due to the shutdown) means we must wait until December for fuller clarity on employment trends.
By the numbers
- 33,000: combined downward revisions to July and August gains
- +22,000 → –4,000: shift in August
- 97,000: drop in federal employment since January
- 76%: voters rating the economy negatively (Fox News)
- 258,000: earlier May–June job‑gain correction
Why it matters
Large and repeated corrections undermine confidence in the labour‑market narrative, complicating political and economic perceptions. With public sentiment eroding and key data delayed, uncertainty around employment — and its implications for policy and markets — is rising.
What to watch
- Whether the December combined jobs release shows continued softening
- Shifts in voter sentiment regarding economic responsibility
- Any renewed political scrutiny of the BLS or federal employment metrics
- How markets respond to the ongoing employment narrative
The bottom line
Weaker job‑data revisions are reshaping the story: employment gains were less strong than initially reported, public confidence is falling, and the policy + market interplay is becoming murkier. With key clarity still waiting, uncertainty remains elevated.
New Senate Bill Demands Full Audit of U.S. Gold Reserves, Upgrading to Global Standards
The big picture
A new legislative push aims for the first full audit of the U.S. gold reserves in decades, along with a refinement program to align legacy holdings with internationally recognised standards.
Driving the news
Sen. Mike Lee’s Gold Reserve Transparency Act would require a comprehensive inventory, audit, and 50‑year transaction history of federal gold holdings. Similar provisions were introduced in the House by Reps. Thomas Massie, Warren Davidson, Alex McDowell and Nick Nehls. Supporters such as Money Metals Exchange and the Sound Money Defense League argue transparency has eroded due to decades without verification. The Act would open all vaults, mandate next audits every five years, and require older “coin‑melt” bars — often only ~90% pure — to be refined to “good delivery” quality.
By the numbers
- 50 years: look‑back on transactions mandated
- 1 year: timeframe for the initial audit
- 5 years: frequency of subsequent audits
- ~90%: approximate purity of many legacy U.S. gold bars
Why it matters
With central‑bank purchases of gold accelerating globally, the U.S. may feel pressure to demonstrate the integrity, accessibility and quality of its reserves. Transparent holdings can bolster confidence in gold as a monetary foundation and support a long‑term allocation to physical holdings.
What to watch
- Progress of the bill in the Senate and House
- Fluency of the U.S. Treasury Department and Fed in responding
- Market reaction to any audit findings or refinement announcements
- Timeline for refining older bars and aligning reserve quality with global standards
The bottom line
This legislative effort emphasises accountability and standardisation — signalling that the physical‑assets community continues to prioritise transparency and quality in the backdrop of evolving global monetary dynamics.
Short Seller Warns of Regional‑Bank Risk & Highlights Real Assets
The big picture
Short‑seller Laks Ganapathi argues the U.S. regional‑banking sector may face collapse amid rising consumer‑debt stress and private‑credit illiquidity — while real assets such as gold may offer relative resilience.
Driving the news
Ganapathi, CEO of Unicus Research, brands private‑credit delinquencies as “a nightmare,” noting record car‑loan delinquencies, rising student‑debt burdens and buy‑now‑pay‑later pressures. She compares today’s environment to “the 2008 crisis on steroids” and warns that spill‑over into regional banks backed by major lenders could be significant. She’s skeptical that Fed rate cuts in 2026 will provide meaningful relief, calling them “a Band‑Aid on a bullet wound,” and argues that easing may exacerbate inflation. Despite a bearish view on banks and tech, she sees physical assets like gold as favourable amid mounting financial stress.
By the numbers
- 1 in 5: Americans reportedly paying $1,000/month or more in auto loans
- 50%+: Increase in car‑maintenance inflation
- 56%: Rise in car‑insurance premiums
- Record: Car‑loan delinquency levels recently observed
Why it matters
If latent risks in consumer debt collide with private‑credit illiquidity, regional banks may be vulnerable — creating an environment where tangible holdings may outperform financial instruments and provide diversification benefits in a stressed scenario.
What to watch
- Delinquency trends across auto, mortgage and BNPL‑loans
- Liquidity stress signals in private‑credit funds
- Early signs of stress in regional‑bank balance sheets
- Momentum shift toward physical assets among market participants
The bottom line
Ganapathi’s warning highlights how structural financial risks may redirect attention toward tangible assets. As debt‑accumulation and liquidity fragility rise, the appeal of physical holdings may gain further traction.
Next Week’s Key Events
Economic Calendar: November 24 – 28, 2025 (ET)
MONDAY, Nov 24
• None scheduled
TUESDAY, Nov 25
• 8:30 am — U.S. Retail Sales (delayed report) (Sept.)
• 9:00 am — S&P Case‑Shiller Home Price Index (20 cities) (Sept.)
• 10:00 am — Consumer Confidence (Nov.)
• 10:00 am — Pending Home Sales (Oct.)
WEDNESDAY, Nov 26
• 8:30 am — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 22)
• 8:30 am — GDP (first revision) (Q3)
• 10:00 am — PCE Index (Oct.)
THURSDAY, Nov 27
• Thanksgiving holiday — none scheduled
FRIDAY, Nov 28
• 9:45 am — None scheduled (Nov.)
May be delayed due to government shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12
To continue building your understanding of how real‑assets strategies align with broader economic trends, visit our website and explore our Learning Center. Stay informed, stay prepared, and let clarity guide your approach to physical precious‑metals holdings.
