Market momentum in precious metals has reached a pivotal moment. As key economic indicators and central bank policy decisions loom, understanding the drivers behind gold’s recent rally and silver’s breakout potential is essential for market participants. Here’s your refreshed, brand-aligned overview of recent trends, upcoming catalysts, and what to watch next.
Monday – 7.21.25
Gold and silver surged near midday Monday, buoyed by a softer U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields. Gold rose $56.50 to close at $3,415.00, while silver futures climbed $0.851 to $39.315. The U.S. dollar index weakened, bullish momentum gained traction, crude oil traded slightly lower around $67 per barrel, and the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.3%.
Tuesday – 7.22.25
Markets pushed gold to a five‑week high and silver to near a 14‑year peak by midday, driven by dollar weakness and dipping yields. Technical buying reinforced the rally. August gold increased $32.40 to $3,439.10, while September silver added $0.196 to $39.52. Currency market dynamics suggest further dollar declines, with one‑month risk reversals turning negative and forecasts for continued dollar pressure into August.
Wednesday – 7.23.25
Precious metals retreated near midday Wednesday following profit-taking after gold and silver hit recent highs. A major U.S.–Japan trade agreement, seen as positive for risk assets, further reduced safe-haven appeal. August gold fell $46.30 to $3,396.80, and September silver dipped $0.18 to $39.39.
Thursday – 7.24.25
Both gold and silver eased midday amid short-term profit-taking and light long-position liquidations in gold. Broader market sentiment improved, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. August gold declined $19.50 to $3,378.40, and September silver slipped $0.218 to $39.285.
Friday – 7.25.25
Metals continued to drift lower in the morning, with August gold down $32.70 to $3,340.80 and September silver retreating $0.319 to $38.905. Global equity markets showed mixed performance, and a visit from Trump to the Fed highlighted growing public pressure over rate policy. China’s budget deficit hit $733 billion amid reduced exports, while an EU‑China summit yielded modest progress beyond supply chain talks and climate cooperation.
Silver Approaches $50 Amid Strong Momentum
The Big Picture
Silver has climbed to a 14‑year high, extending an uptrend that began in 2020. With resistance near $40 in sight, the blend of technical strength, constrained supply, and rising speculative interest suggests a potential test of all-time highs from 1980 and 2011. This alignment of fundamentals and chart structure often precedes rapid price advances in volatile assets like silver.
What’s Happening
By mid‑July, silver futures exceeded $38.50, reaching $39.57 on July 14—a roughly 240 % gain since the 2020 low. A bullish key reversal in Q2 reinforces upside potential. According to the Silver Institute, a 150 million‑ounce supply shortfall is projected for 2025, marking the fifth consecutive deficit year. Should speculative interest surge—especially amid tariff speculation—silver may rapidly overcome longstanding resistance.
By the Numbers
- Q2 silver close: $35.852/oz
- July 14 high: $39.57/oz
- Milestone targets: $49.82 (2011), $50.32 (1980)
- 2025 supply shortfall forecast: 150 million ounces
- Open interest (July 17): 172,865 contracts (below 2019 peak of 229,680)
- Historical volatility: silver ~23.6 %, gold ~13.3 %
- Mexico: world’s top silver producer
Why It Matters
The current setup may position silver for a breakout. With supply deficits intensifying and technical charts pointing upward, rising prices could attract a wave of interest—especially if tariff policy shifts heighten commodity demand. As gold strengthens against fiat currencies, silver may further assert its role as a tangible asset.
The Bottom Line
With fundamentals and technicals rare aligned, silver may be on the verge of testing—and potentially surpassing—its record highs. Volatility is expected, but for market participants monitoring hard assets, dips may present opportunities in a rally that could reshape perceptions of monetary stability.
Fed Policy Rift Deepens as Gold Approaches $3,500
The Big Picture
Gold is gaining traction as Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocates for significant rate cuts and signals potential leadership shift. His dovish stance, combined with political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, creates an environment that could push gold toward its all-time high near $3,500.
What’s Happening
Waller has suggested 125–150 bps in rate cuts, targeting a neutral rate near 3%, running counter to Powell’s more cautious approach. Though not likely to influence immediate policy, Waller’s position and alignment with political voices may signal a leadership transition in 2026. This scenario supports gold’s safe-haven appeal amid rising political and inflation-related uncertainty.
By the Numbers
- Proposed cuts by Waller: 125–150 basis points
- Target Fed Funds Rate: ~3%
- Trump–favored range: 1.25–1.5%
- Spot gold (July 23): $3,415.19/oz (–0.54% daily, +2.17% past 5 days)
- Resistance around: $3,432/oz
- Support tested near: $3,405/oz
Why It Matters
Heightened debate around Fed policy and leadership raises questions about central bank credibility. If the Fed’s independence appears compromised, confidence in the U.S. dollar may weaken, increasing demand for alternative stores of value like gold. A shift in leadership or policy direction could reinforce gold’s position as a hedge.
The Bottom Line
With gold eyeing its April peak near $3,500, evolving dynamics at the Fed make this a key area to watch. While immediate change is unlikely, the potential for policy pivot or leadership shift supports the case for gold as a strategic asset in uncertain times.
Altcoins Take the Spotlight as Bitcoin Market Share Declines
The Big Picture
Crypto markets appear to be entering “altcoin season,” where lesser-known digital assets outperform Bitcoin. With Bitcoin’s market share falling by 7% recently, speculative hype and social media-driven cycles are propelling altcoins—but inherent risk remains high.
What’s Happening
In the past week, 16 of the top 20 non-stablecoin tokens outpaced Bitcoin. Many are driven by short-lived narratives and hype. Emerging tokens gain traction quickly, but often fall sharply once attention wanes. While experienced participants may capitalize on these swings, caution remains warranted—especially without leverage.
By the Numbers
- Bitcoin dominance: –7% past month
- Top‑20 altcoins: 16 outperformed Bitcoin in last week
- Altcoin volatility: potential +200% gains, –50% declines
- Trading dynamics: similar return potential as leveraged trades, but without borrowing
Why It Matters
The excitement around altcoins reflects both opportunity and danger. With rapid sentiment shifts and liquidity flows, market participants can experience extreme outcomes. Leverage greatly amplifies these swings, so a measured, disciplined approach remains critical.
The Bottom Line
Altcoin season offers enticing upside—but the risks are real. For those navigating this dynamic ecosystem, keeping exposure modest and staying patient can be the difference between capturing gains and suffering sharp losses.
Next Week’s Key Events
Economic Calendar: July 28 – August 1, 2025
Monday, July 28
- None scheduled
Tuesday, July 29
- 9:00 AM ET – S&P Case‑Shiller Home Price Index (May)
- 10:00 AM ET – Consumer Confidence (July)
- 10:00 AM ET – JOLTS Report (June)
Wednesday, July 30
- 8:15 AM ET – ADP Employment Report (July)
- 8:30 AM ET – GDP (Q2)
- 10:00 AM ET – Pending Home Sales (June)
- 2:00 PM ET – FOMC Interest‑Rate Decision
Thursday, July 31
- 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims (week ending July 26)
- 8:30 AM ET – PCE Index (June)
Friday, August 1
- 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Employment Report (July)
- 9:45 AM ET – S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI (July)
- 10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing (July)
- 10:00 AM ET – Consumer Sentiment Final (July)
Impact on Precious Metals Markets
- Home Price Index (Tue, July 29): Hot housing inflation could support gold and silver; a slowdown may ease pressure.
- Consumer Confidence (Tue, July 29): Rising sentiment may moderate safe-haven demand; weakness could strengthen metals.
- JOLTS Report (Tue, July 29): Tight labor data could weigh on metals; looser conditions may favor them.
- ADP & GDP (Wed, July 30): Strong readings boost risk appetite; weaker data may increase demand for hard assets.
- Pending Home Sales (Wed, July 30): Housing strength may reduce metals interest; a miss could support them.
- FOMC Decision (Wed, July 30): Hawkish tone may pressure metals; dovish signals may lift them.
- Jobless Claims & PCE (Thu, July 31): Rising claims or cooler PCE may reinforce metals; strong inflation or labor metrics may deter them.
- Employment & PMI data (Fri, August 1): Robust economic reports could challenge metals; softer data may be supportive.
- Manufacturing & Sentiment (Fri, August 1): Contraction or waning sentiment may benefit gold and silver; strength could reduce demand.
Continue exploring these themes—and learn more about how physical gold and silver can fit a prudent strategy—by visiting our website for deeper insights.
