As global trade tensions and evolving monetary policies continue to shape financial markets, precious metals remain in the spotlight. This week’s market action and upcoming economic data reveal important clues about the balance between growth, inflation, and safe-haven demand for gold and silver. Let’s explore these developments and what they mean for those seeking long-term financial security.
A Daily Journey Through the Week’s Market
Monday – 5.26.25:
Markets were closed for Memorial Day.
Tuesday – 5.27.25:
Gold and silver prices fell sharply midday, with June gold down $73.80 at $3,292.00 and July silver down $0.399 at $33.21. This decline was driven by profit-taking and weak long liquidation in futures as risk appetite improved following President Trump’s decision to delay EU tariffs to July 9. Stock indexes saw significant gains.
Wednesday – 5.28.25:
Gold and silver dipped modestly at midday, with June gold down $3.40 to $3,297.20 and July silver off $0.116 at $33.19. Stock indexes softened after Tuesday’s rally, while stronger trade optimism eased safe-haven demand for precious metals.
Thursday – 5.29.25:
Gold rebounded by $31.90 to $3,353.80 and silver rose $0.295 to $33.45, driven by a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields. A court ruling challenging President Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act added uncertainty, though the administration promptly appealed. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes suggested no imminent rate cuts and signaled concerns about stagflation, weighing on sentiment.
Friday – 5.30.25:
Gold and silver were softer in early trading, with gold down $22.30 at $3,322.00 and silver off $0.123 at $33.30. Markets reacted to President Trump’s vow for tougher trade measures with China and a fresh inflation report showing the PCE index largely in line with expectations. A court ruling kept Trump’s emergency tariffs in place while legal challenges continue, prolonging uncertainty for global trade.
Gold Price Holds at $3,300 Despite Steady Inflation
The Big Picture
Gold prices have maintained strength above $3,300 an ounce, supported by steady inflation data. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—an important inflation measure for the Fed—rose 0.1% in April after being unchanged in March, with annual core inflation easing to 2.5%.
What’s Happening
The Commerce Department’s figures show that core inflation met expectations, keeping the Fed on a cautious policy path. Meanwhile, lower real yields have kept gold appealing for those seeking stability.
By the Numbers
- Spot gold: $3,301/oz, down 0.49%
- April core PCE index: +0.1%
- 12-month core inflation: +2.5% (down from 2.7% in March)
Why It Matters
The data underscores gold’s role as a store of value in times of economic transition and monetary policy shifts.
The Bottom Line
Gold continues to find solid footing above $3,300, reflecting balanced expectations for inflation and growth, and reinforcing precious metals’ enduring appeal.
Consumer Confidence Jumps as Trump Eases China Tariffs
The Big Picture
Consumer confidence in the U.S. rose in May after a five-month decline, fueled by the Trump administration’s move to reduce tariffs on Chinese imports. The Conference Board’s index shows that people are closely monitoring trade developments for signals on the economy and their own financial outlooks.
What’s Happening
The index rose over 12 points in May, with optimism climbing across the board, particularly among Republicans. Although concerns remain about higher prices from tariffs, the easing of restrictions has lifted hopes for trade progress. Notably, about half the responses were gathered before the May 12 announcement slashing tariffs from 145% to 30% for 90 days.
By the Numbers
- Consumer Confidence Index: +12 points in May
- Tariff cut: from 145% to 30% for 90 days
- Factory orders: down over 6% in April after an 8% gain in March
- Non-defense capital goods orders: fell 19% after a 27% surge
Why It Matters
The data show how sensitive confidence is to trade policy headlines. Volatile factory orders further highlight how policy swings can upend demand trends.
The Bottom Line
While optimism is rebounding with trade hopes, uncertainty over longer-term growth and inflation remains a key consideration for market participants.
Fed Minutes Show Confidence in U.S. Economy Despite Dollar Drop and Steepening Treasuries
The Big Picture
The Fed’s May meeting minutes reveal confidence in the U.S. economy’s foundation despite concerns over trade disputes, a weaker dollar, and financial instability. Policymakers chose to keep rates steady while acknowledging risks tied to global trade tensions and inflation pressures.
What’s Happening
The minutes note volatility in markets, a steepening Treasury yield curve, and a 2% slide in the broad trade-weighted dollar index. Concerns included rising yields, wider credit spreads, and potential drag on activity from tariffs. Still, officials believed the economy’s core momentum remained strong.
By the Numbers
- Federal funds rate: 4.25%–4.5%
- Dollar index drop: over 2%
- Spot gold price post-minutes: $3,301.70/oz (+0.03%)
- Treasury yields: short-term down ~20 bps; long-term up
- FOMC meeting: May 6-7
Why It Matters
The Fed’s steady hand amid growing trade-related volatility offers a degree of stability, which continues to support interest in precious metals as reliable stores of wealth.
The Bottom Line
The Fed remains cautious, keeping an eye on trade disruptions and inflation signals—factors that can both bolster the case for precious metals as tangible assets.
Trump Delays EU Tariff Deadline After 50% Threat
The Big Picture
President Trump has extended the EU tariff deadline to July 9, postponing his threat of a 50% tariff after a constructive phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. This pause follows weeks of tension over trade imbalances and sensitive goods.
What’s Happening
Trump initially announced a 20% tariff on EU goods in April, later trimmed to 10%, before threatening 50% tariffs by June 1 due to frustration with slow progress. The delay aligns with an earlier EU proposal, aiming to foster dialogue. Meanwhile, EU leaders continue to warn that escalation would harm both economies and are pushing for a balanced outcome.
By the Numbers
- EU exports to U.S. (2024): over $600 billion
- U.S. imports from EU: $370 billion
- Proposed tariff rate: 50% (threatened for June 1)
- Existing tariffs: 25% on EU steel and aluminum
Why It Matters
This delay removes immediate pressure but underscores how fragile the trade relationship remains, with global implications.
The Bottom Line
The extension gives both sides a chance to reach a deal, but the shadow of potential tariffs continues to weigh on global markets and the trade outlook.
BoA’s Blanch Predicts Gold Will Hit $4,000/oz and Silver Will Reach $40/oz by Year-End
The Big Picture
Despite recent pullbacks in gold and silver, Francisco Blanch of Bank of America Securities sees both metals pushing significantly higher by year-end, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
What’s Happening
Blanch believes current price softness reflects a pause in market concerns but expects renewed volatility to fuel gold’s advance beyond $4,000. For silver, he sees both industrial demand—especially in clean energy—and safe-haven interest as catalysts for a rebound.
By the Numbers
- Gold price target: $4,000/oz by year-end
- Silver price target: $40/oz by year-end
- Spot gold Tuesday: $3,294.15/oz (down 1.45%)
- Spot silver Tuesday: $33.068/oz (down 1.27%)
Why It Matters
This outlook points to the potential for precious metals to reclaim momentum as the year progresses, supported by structural industrial demand and ongoing global challenges.
The Bottom Line
The current pause in gold and silver may set the stage for a robust recovery as 2025 unfolds, highlighting the importance of holding tangible assets amid shifting economic landscapes.
China’s Gold Imports Surge as Hong Kong Shipments Triple in April
The Big Picture
China’s gold imports through Hong Kong surged in April, nearly tripling from March to 43.5 metric tons—the highest since March 2024. This signals robust demand from China even as global gold prices hover near record levels.
What’s Happening
Data from Hong Kong’s Census office shows a sharp rise in imports, driven by higher premiums and an expanded import quota from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). Analysts suggest this reflects Beijing’s determination to secure physical gold amid growing economic uncertainty.
By the Numbers
- China net imports via Hong Kong: 43.462 metric tons (up from 4.889)
- Total imports via Hong Kong: 58.61 metric tons (up 178.17%)
- China total gold imports (all sources): 127.5 metric tons (73% increase from March)
- Record high gold price: $3,500/oz (April)
Why It Matters
China’s aggressive buying highlights how physical gold remains a critical store of value in the face of economic volatility and trade disruptions.
The Bottom Line
April’s surge reaffirms China’s focus on gold as a safeguard for stability, despite historically high prices.
Next Week’s Key Events & Impacts on Precious Metals
Economic Calendar: June 2 – June 6, 2025
- Monday, June 2:
- S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI – May
- ISM Manufacturing – May
- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speech
- Tuesday, June 3:
- JOLTS Report – April
- Wednesday, June 4:
- ADP Employment – May
- S&P Final U.S. Services PMI – May
- ISM Services – May
- Thursday, June 5:
- Initial Jobless Claims – Week ending May 31
- U.S. Trade Deficit – April
- Friday, June 6:
- Jobs Report (Employment Situation Summary) – May
Potential Market Impacts on Precious Metals
Manufacturing & Services Data (June 2 and 4)
Stronger-than-expected manufacturing (ISM and PMI) and services data (ISM Services) would reinforce confidence in economic growth and could prompt market participants to anticipate tighter monetary policy. Such expectations may drive yields higher and dampen demand for precious metals, as people shift focus to riskier assets. Conversely, if these data points show weakness, it could raise concerns about slowing economic activity—supporting safe-haven flows into gold and silver.
JOLTS Report (June 3)
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will offer insight into labor market dynamics. A robust reading, indicating a tight labor market and high job openings, could stoke fears of wage-driven inflation and strengthen the case for higher interest rates—typically a headwind for gold. If job openings fall, it may hint at softening labor conditions, increasing the appeal of precious metals as a safe store of value.
ADP Employment & Jobs Report (June 4 and 6)
The ADP private payrolls data and the official Jobs Report will shape market expectations for future Fed policy. A surge in job gains would bolster confidence in economic resilience, potentially limiting demand for gold as participants rotate to equities and growth-oriented assets. On the other hand, disappointing employment numbers could spark fears of economic slowdown, enhancing the safe-haven allure of gold and silver.
Initial Jobless Claims (June 5)
This weekly measure of layoffs provides a leading indicator of labor market health. Rising claims would indicate a cooling labor market and possible headwinds for economic momentum—an environment that often boosts gold demand. Conversely, falling claims would support the view of a resilient economy and may dampen enthusiasm for gold as a hedge.
U.S. Trade Deficit (June 5)
The trade deficit data will have direct implications for the U.S. dollar’s strength. A widening deficit could weigh on the dollar, typically providing tailwinds for gold by making it more attractive in other currencies. If the trade gap narrows, the dollar may strengthen—limiting demand for dollar-denominated gold.
Dallas Fed President Logan’s Speech (June 2)
As a voting member of the FOMC, Lorie Logan’s remarks could sway market sentiment. A hawkish tone—emphasizing inflation risks and supporting higher rates—could lift yields and weigh on gold’s appeal. A dovish tone, signaling concern over economic headwinds, might bolster the case for precious metals as a safe-haven investment.
The Bottom Line
As economic signals continue to shape markets, precious metals stand as a time-tested hedge and store of value—especially in times of policy uncertainty and shifting trade dynamics. Stay connected to explore more insights and deepen your understanding of how to secure your financial future with tangible assets.
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