Markets spent the first half of the week acting like nothing could go wrong. Stocks climbed, investors shrugged off geopolitical headlines, and precious metals took a breather. Then Thursday’s surprisingly weak jobs report changed the conversation. The dollar stumbled, gold reclaimed the $4,100 level, and silver finally broke its weeks-long slump.
The takeaway? Markets can change direction quickly. Here’s what moved the markets this week—and what deserves your attention heading into next week.
Monday (6.29.26): Gold $4,015.60 · Silver $58.180
Gold and silver started the week on the defensive. While tensions involving Iran briefly pushed oil prices higher, investors chose optimism instead, sending the Dow to another record high above 52,000. Treasury yields continued climbing as markets maintained expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates elevated for longer. Gold slipped 1.79%, while silver eased 1.48%.
The lesson? Geopolitical headlines don’t automatically send investors rushing into precious metals. Interest rates and monetary policy still carry enormous influence.
Tuesday (6.30.26): Gold $4,006.70 · Silver $58.470
Tuesday became a tale of two metals.
A stronger-than-expected JOLTS report reinforced the idea that the labor market remains resilient, pushing Treasury yields higher once again. Gold drifted lower by 0.22%, while silver managed a modest 0.50% gain. Meanwhile, oil markets stabilized as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz continued improving.
Markets are increasingly balancing strong economic data against growing uncertainty about what comes next.
Wednesday (7.01.26): Gold $4,036.90 · Silver $59.070
The third quarter began with renewed momentum.
Gold climbed 0.75% while silver briefly traded above $60 before easing back later in the session. Investors spent most of the day preparing for Thursday’s employment report after weaker ADP payroll data hinted that hiring may be slowing.
Sometimes markets don’t react to today’s news—they position themselves for tomorrow’s.
Thursday (7.02.26): Gold $4,112.70 · Silver $60.643
Thursday belonged to precious metals.
Payrolls increased by just 57,000 versus expectations for 115,000, prompting the dollar to weaken and investors to reassess the Federal Reserve’s path forward. Gold climbed above $4,100 while silver posted another strong gain, snapping a seven-week losing streak.
The employment report reminded investors that economic momentum can cool quickly—and markets often respond just as fast.
Friday (7.03.26):
Spot gold and silver rose sharply Friday, with gold near $4,175.50 (+1.30%) and silver near $62.220 (+2.28%), extending the short-covering rally sparked by Thursday’s weak June payrolls (57K vs. 115K expected). The dollar and Treasury yields remain under pressure, though rate traders haven’t ruled out another Fed hike this year. Oil’s retreat toward prewar levels, driven by normalizing Hormuz shipping, is adding a disinflationary tailwind even as the U.S.-Iran standoff over the strait remains unsettled. Markets now turn to July 14 CPI and the July 29 FOMC decision.
Gold Climbs Back Above $4,100 After Hiring Misses Expectations
The big picture
June’s employment report delivered one of the week’s biggest surprises. Payroll growth came in well below forecasts, encouraging investors to rotate back toward gold as expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening eased.
Driving the news
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000, well below expectations of 115,000.
- The unemployment rate declined to 4.2%, although labor force participation also fell to its lowest level since March 2021.
- Previous months’ payroll figures were revised lower, reinforcing signs that hiring has slowed.
- Leisure and hospitality posted notable job losses, while healthcare, business services, and social assistance continued adding positions.
- Weekly jobless claims remained relatively stable as spot gold climbed more than 2% following the report.
Why it matters
Employment remains one of the Federal Reserve’s most closely watched indicators. Softer labor data generally reduces pressure for additional rate hikes, which can improve the outlook for assets like gold that historically perform well when real interest rates begin moderating.
For investors focused on preserving long-term purchasing power, these shifts in monetary expectations are often more important than any single day’s market move.
What to watch
Markets have largely removed the possibility of another near-term rate hike, but upcoming inflation and employment reports could quickly reshape expectations. Investors will be watching closely for confirmation that the labor market is truly slowing—or simply normalizing.
The bottom line
Gold continues responding primarily to changing expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy. As long as economic data remains mixed, precious metals are likely to remain an important part of many diversified portfolios.
Gold May Be Consolidating—Not Finished
The big picture
After an extraordinary run earlier this year, gold has settled into a more measured trading range. According to the World Gold Council’s mid-year outlook, that consolidation could simply represent the next phase of a longer-term trend rather than its conclusion.
Driving the news
- The World Gold Council expects gold to trade within roughly 5% of current levels absent a major economic catalyst.
- Market volatility has eased considerably since the U.S.-Iran conflict, although it remains above long-term averages.
- Gold remains one of the strongest-performing major assets over the past year.
- Asian investors continue playing an increasingly important role in global gold demand.
- India’s recent increase in import duties is expected to temporarily reduce consumer demand.
Why it matters
Gold’s long-term outlook continues to rest on several structural drivers: central bank diversification, global demand for portfolio stability, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy.
While short-term price swings are inevitable, many long-term investors view these periods of consolidation as opportunities to reassess portfolio allocations rather than reasons for concern.
What to watch
Central bank purchasing trends, Asian demand, and future Federal Reserve decisions remain among the most important variables influencing gold’s direction during the second half of the year.
The bottom line
Gold may spend time moving sideways, but the broader investment case remains supported by diversification, long-term demand, and its historical role as a store of value.
Why Some Professional Investors Still Favor Gold
The big picture
Waratah Capital Advisors’ Brad Dunkley believes gold’s recent pullback represents an opportunity—not because of short-term headlines, but because of long-term fiscal and monetary trends.
Driving the news
- Dunkley argues that elevated government debt limits how high interest rates can realistically remain.
- He believes long-term currency expansion—not temporary inflation—is one of gold’s strongest structural drivers.
- Gold has historically preserved purchasing power across multiple decades and economic cycles.
- Waratah currently favors gold mining companies rather than holding physical bullion directly.
- Canadian producers remain among the firm’s preferred investments.
Why it matters
Not every investor approaches precious metals the same way. Some prefer mining equities, while others value the simplicity, direct ownership, and independence of physical gold and silver.
At Prime Assets, we believe physical precious metals offer investors something unique: a tangible asset with no counterparty risk that has helped preserve wealth across generations.
What to watch
Investors will continue monitoring institutional interest in both mining companies and physical bullion, particularly if economic growth moderates or market volatility increases.
The bottom line
Whether through mining shares or physical ownership, many experienced investors continue viewing precious metals as an important component of long-term wealth preservation.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Monday, Jul. 6
- 9:45 am — U.S. Services PMI (Jun.)
- 10:00 am — ISM Services PMI (Jun.)
Tuesday, Jul. 7
No major economic events scheduled.
Wednesday, Jul. 8
- 2:00 pm — FOMC Meeting Minutes and Economic Forecast
- 3:00 pm — Consumer Credit (May)
- 8:00 pm — Remarks from Federal Reserve officials and Bank of England representatives
Thursday, Jul. 9
- 8:30 am — Weekly Jobless Claims
- 10:00 am — Existing Home Sales
Friday, Jul. 10
No major economic events scheduled.
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS
U.S. Services PMI (S&P Global)
- Strong reading = resilient economy = modest headwind for gold.
- Weak reading = slowing services activity = supportive for precious metals.
Because services represent most of the U.S. economy, this report provides an early snapshot of economic momentum before the ISM release.
ISM Services PMI
- Above 50 = expansion = modest pressure on gold.
- Below 50 = contraction = supportive for precious metals.
This remains one of the Federal Reserve’s most closely followed reports due to the size of the U.S. services sector.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
- More hawkish language = higher interest rates for longer = potential headwind.
- More dovish language = increased flexibility on rates = supportive for gold and silver.
Investors often find important policy clues inside the meeting minutes that weren’t obvious during the official announcement.
Consumer Credit
- Strong borrowing = healthy consumer spending = mild headwind.
- Weak borrowing = slower consumer activity = modest support for metals.
While generally a lower-impact report, credit trends can offer useful insight into household financial conditions.
Federal Reserve Speakers
- Focus on financial stability = generally neutral.
- Hints of future policy changes = increased market volatility.
Off-the-cuff comments can sometimes influence expectations more than prepared speeches.
Weekly Jobless Claims
- Rising claims = softer labor market = supportive for precious metals.
- Falling claims = continued labor strength = modest headwind.
Weekly claims remain one of the fastest indicators of changing labor market conditions.
Existing Home Sales
- Strong housing activity = resilient economy = mild headwind.
- Weak housing activity = slower growth = supportive for metals.
Housing continues serving as an important barometer of how current interest rates are affecting consumers.
Continue the Conversation
Markets move every day, but successful investing is built on long-term perspective—not short-term headlines.
Visit Prime Assets to explore additional market insights, educational resources, and commentary on physical gold and silver investing. Whether you’re expanding an existing portfolio or simply learning more about precious metals, we’re here to help you make informed decisions with confidence.
