Monday (1.05.25):
Gold and silver gained as markets reacted to geopolitical shifts following developments in Venezuela. February gold rose about $130 to $4,459, while March silver added nearly $6 to $77. Despite equities remaining upbeat, metals reflected rising awareness of broader global currents.
Tuesday (1.06.25):
Gold moved up another $44 to $4,495 and silver surged nearly $4 to $80. Safe-haven demand remained strong as market participants absorbed the implications of recent international events.
Wednesday (1.07.25):
Metals pulled back as traders locked in gains. Gold dipped about $40 to $4,456, while silver dropped nearly $4 to $77. Nonetheless, long-term accumulation trends—like China’s ongoing gold buying—highlight continued confidence in physical assets.
Thursday (1.08.26):
Gold hovered slightly higher near $4,473, while silver faced liquidation pressure, falling near $76. The market also looked ahead to potential volatility from index rebalancing.
Friday (1.09.26):
Gold remained stable and silver remained volatile as markets awaited Friday’s labor data. Broader uncertainty around global developments and monetary policy helped maintain safe-haven demand.
Gold Holds Firm as Silver Weakens Amid Rising Market Crosscurrents
The big picture
Gold demonstrated resilience on Thursday, recovering from intraday lows to finish higher near noteworthy levels, while silver experienced greater selling pressure, highlighting a divergence in performance between the two metals.
Why it matters
This divergence reflects evolving market conditions where gold’s role as a defensive asset remains prominent, and silver’s performance shows sensitivity to technical and cyclical influences.
Driving the news
Gold rebounded from an intraday low near $4,415 to close around $4,487, indicating underlying demand. Silver futures declined over 1.5% on the session before a modest late recovery.
By the numbers
• ~$4,487: Gold’s closing price after recovery
• +$20.80: Gold’s session gain
• ~$76.89: Silver’s settlement price
• −1.67%: Silver’s percentage loss
What’s driving volatility
Annual index rebalancing can prompt temporary price adjustments as benchmark-linked positions reset in passive strategies.
What to watch
Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be central—softer employment could support safe-haven demand, while stronger figures may influence broader commodities.
Reality check
Gold’s performance remained relatively insulated from the recent rise in the U.S. dollar, suggesting recent moves may be tied more to positioning following substantial gains than currency effects.
The bottom line
Gold’s stability contrasts with silver’s sensitivity to near-term technical factors. Both metals remain in long-term positive trends, though silver’s higher short-term volatility requires cautious consideration ahead of key catalysts.
U.S. Plans to Control Venezuelan Oil Sales for the Long Term
The big picture
The U.S. aims to oversee the sale of sanctioned Venezuelan oil on an ongoing basis while selectively easing export restrictions, blending geopolitical influence with strategic energy positioning.
Why it matters
This approach offers Washington greater leverage in directing how Venezuela’s oil output and associated revenues are managed, with implications for energy markets and regional economic dynamics.
Driving the news
Officials have indicated an initial sale of 30 to 50 million barrels, with proceeds directed to U.S.-controlled accounts. Energy leadership underscores the intent to use this control to support broader stabilization goals.
By the numbers
• 30–50 million barrels: Initial sales volume
• ~$2.8 billion: Estimated revenues
• ~1M bpd: Venezuela’s current output
• <1%: Venezuela’s share of global oil production
What they’re saying
U.S. officials emphasize economic benefit for Venezuelans, while the Venezuelan oil company and external observers note ongoing discussions and legal considerations.
State of play
Marketing efforts are underway with financial institutions and commodity firms as selective sanction adjustments are evaluated.
Reality check
Due to years of underinvestment, Venezuela’s capacity to significantly boost output remains limited without substantial long-term commitments.
The bottom line
U.S. oversight of Venezuelan oil sales introduces new dynamics in regional energy flows. However, converting control into sustained production growth remains a gradual process.
Venezuela’s Critical Minerals and the U.S.–China Technology Landscape
The big picture
Beyond oil, U.S. attention now extends to Venezuela’s reserves of critical minerals—materials integral to advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and defense systems.
Why it matters
Developing these mineral resources could contribute to diversified supply chains while offering strategic alternatives in a global landscape where technological competition with China remains a priority.
Driving the news
Commerce leadership highlighted Venezuela’s latent mining potential, underscoring the opportunity to supplement existing sources of essential inputs.
The big picture
This focus aligns with a broader strategy in which access to critical materials complements energy and technological initiatives.
What they’re saying
Commentators note that securing alternative supplies supports long-term resilience in technology ecosystems as global demand for these inputs rises.
State of play
While access to raw materials is important, refining and processing capacity remain concentrated geographically, requiring investment and infrastructure development.
Reality check
The potential benefits of new supply sources are contingent on overcoming refining and logistical challenges.
The bottom line
Venezuela’s critical mineral resources offer strategic promise, but meaningful contribution to advanced technology supply chains will unfold over time.
Trump Announces Capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro in U.S. Operation
The big picture
A coordinated U.S. operation resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his partner, signaling a consequential shift in U.S.–Venezuela relations and offering market participants a new context for geopolitical risk assessment.
Driving the news
The operation, termed Operation Absolute Resolve, involved multiple components and concluded without reported U.S. casualties. Maduro now faces legal proceedings linked to prior charges.
By the numbers
• 2 captures: Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores de Maduro
• 150+ aircraft: Operational support elements
• 0 U.S. casualties reported
• 2020: Year of the Justice Department’s indictment
Why it matters
Such an operation highlights how geopolitical actions can intersect with legal frameworks and global strategic considerations.
What to watch
International responses, developments within Venezuela’s interim governance, and the broader precedent for addressing state-linked criminal activity will be important to observe.
The bottom line
The operation represents a definitive moment in regional geopolitics, with implications for how state challenges are approached and interpreted in strategic discussions.
NEXT WEEK’S KEY EVENTS
Economic Calendar: January 12 – January 16, 2026 (ET)
MONDAY, Jan. 12
• 8:00 am — Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks
• 12:30 pm — Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks
TUESDAY, Jan. 13
• 8:30 am — U.S. Consumer Price Index (Dec.)
• 10:00 am — U.S. New Home Sales (Oct.)
• 10:00 am — St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks
• 4:00 pm — Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 14
• 8:30 am — U.S. Retail Sales (Nov.)
• 8:30 am — U.S. Producer Price Index (Nov.)
• 10:00 am — Existing Home Sales (Dec.)
• 11:00 am — Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks
• 2:00 pm — New York Fed President John Williams remarks
THURSDAY, Jan. 15
• 8:30 am — Initial Jobless Claims (Jan. 10)
• 8:30 am — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Jan.)
• 8:30 am — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jan.)
• 12:40 pm — Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks
FRIDAY, Jan. 16
• 9:15 am — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Dec.)
IMPACT ON PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
Federal Reserve Speakers (Mon–Thu)
• Consistent messaging on inflation or labor strength may reinforce expectations of extended policy firmness, influencing metals downward.
• Emphasis on growth moderation or financial conditions may support the narrative for metals.
U.S. Consumer Price Index (Tue)
• Elevated inflation signals could extend policy firmness, potentially tempering metals performance.
• Softer readings may reinforce a disinflationary narrative and support metals.
New Home Sales (Tue)
• Strong housing data may signal resilience; weaker data may emphasize rate sensitivity.
Retail Sales (Wed)
• Robust consumer spending may highlight growth momentum; weaker data may signal slowing demand.
Producer Price Index (Wed)
• Firm input prices could suggest inflation persistence; softer input trends may reinforce cooling.
Existing Home Sales (Wed)
• Shifts in housing activity can inform sentiment on broader economic conditions.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu)
• Rising claims could indicate labor market moderation; consistently low claims may support a firm labor narrative.
Regional Manufacturing Surveys (Thu)
• Positive manufacturing momentum may highlight resilience; contraction may underscore stress.
Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Fri)
• Strong output readings may reflect economic strength; softer data may signal moderation.
Call to Action
To stay informed on how macro developments and market dynamics intersect with precious metals and broader financial conditions, continue your learning journey with deeper analysis and insights on the Prime Assets website.
