Weekly Market Recap
Monday (2.16.26): U.S. markets closed in observance of Presidents Day.
Tuesday (2.17.26): Gold and silver faced notable pressure as short-term traders reduced exposure following recent gains. April gold declined $141 to $4,904, while March silver fell more than $4 to $73.66. A firmer dollar and softer crude prices added headwinds. Meanwhile, renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear discussions in Geneva eased immediate geopolitical stress, temporarily softening safe-haven flows.
Wednesday (2.18.26): Metals rebounded strongly midday, with April gold rising $116 to $5,022 and March silver advancing $4.30 to $77.81. Market participants positioned ahead of the Fed’s FOMC minutes. While policymakers kept rates unchanged in January, debate continues around the timing of any shift. Governor Michael Barr reiterated a patient stance until inflation trends more convincingly toward 2%, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated flexibility should inflation moderate further this year.
Thursday (2.19.26): Gold and silver edged modestly higher as markets weighed geopolitical uncertainty and a cautious Fed tone. April gold hovered near $5,018 and March silver approached $78. Headlines from Axios and CNN suggested the possibility of U.S. military action if diplomacy falters, while Fed minutes reinforced readiness to respond if inflation persists.
Friday (2.20.26): Precious metals remained firm as geopolitical risk and currency dynamics intersected. Washington signaled limited time for diplomatic resolution with Iran, sustaining safe-haven demand. The dollar stayed resilient amid tempered rate-cut expectations, while crude approached multi-month highs on supply concerns.
Gold climbs above $5,060 as U.S. business momentum cools
The big picture
Spot gold advanced beyond $5,060 per ounce after February flash PMI data showed the slowest expansion in U.S. business activity in ten months.
Driving the news
S&P Global’s Composite PMI declined to 52.3 from January’s 53.0, below expectations. Both manufacturing and services reflected softer demand, with slower order growth and moderated hiring. Businesses cited higher input costs, tariff effects, and supplier price increases. While severe weather may have influenced activity, broader data suggests economic momentum is easing early in 2026.
By the numbers
- 52.3 — February flash Composite PMI (vs. 53.0 prior; below 52.6 forecast)
• 52.3 — Services PMI (vs. 52.7 prior; below 53 expected)
• 51.2 — Manufacturing PMI (vs. 52.4 prior; below 52.6 forecast)
• $5,060.25 — spot gold following the release (up 1.28%)
• 1.5% — implied Q1 annualized GDP growth from PMI trends
Why it matters
Cooling activity can enhance gold’s appeal as markets reassess growth expectations. At the same time, input costs accelerated at the fastest pace since August, reflecting wage and tariff pressures. The coexistence of moderating growth and firm inflation complicates the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus.
What to watch
- Confirmation of slowdown in upcoming PMI reports
• Persistence of tariff-related price pressures
• Hard data releases (employment, CPI, GDP)
• Gold’s ability to sustain levels above $5,000
The bottom line
Slower business expansion supported gold’s advance, but resilient cost pressures highlight the balancing act facing policymakers.
Potential U.S.–Iran escalation and implications for oil
The big picture
President Trump is reportedly considering military action within days, prompting renewed focus on energy supply risks and crude price volatility.
Driving the news
Oil has risen more than 5% this week as markets factor in escalation scenarios. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to global energy logistics. Analysts note that even limited disruptions could affect shipping costs and insurance markets, tightening supply conditions.
By the numbers
- 14+ million barrels per day — volume through Hormuz in 2025
• ~33% — share of global seaborne oil exports
• 75% — portion directed to Asia (China, India, Japan, South Korea)
• $100+ per barrel — projected price in prolonged closure scenario
• $10–$15 — potential increase in broader conflict (Rystad)
• $8 — estimated rise if 1M bpd Iranian exports are removed (Goldman Sachs)
Why it matters
Energy flows through Hormuz are difficult to replace. A sustained disruption could lift crude significantly and influence global growth. However, some analysts anticipate any action may be measured to avoid long-term infrastructure damage.
What to watch
- Scope and duration of potential military engagement
• Shipping and insurance conditions in Hormuz
• Regional retaliation risks
• Oil’s response relative to current pricing assumptions
The bottom line
Markets reflect heightened tension but not full supply dislocation. The duration and scale of events will determine oil’s trajectory.
FOMC minutes: stable labor outlook, ongoing inflation debate
The big picture
January FOMC minutes depict a Federal Reserve confident in labor stability yet divided on the interest-rate path amid lingering inflation uncertainty.
Driving the news
Staff projections show GDP expanding slightly below 2024’s pace, with unemployment remaining below its long-run estimate through 2028. While services inflation moderates, tariff-driven goods inflation remains firm. Most officials supported holding rates steady; two favored a quarter-point cut. Several emphasized risks are “two-sided,” allowing flexibility if conditions change.
By the numbers
- 2% — long-run inflation objective
• 0.25% — rate reduction favored by two members
• 2028 — projected period of above-potential growth
• $4,976.42 — spot gold post-minutes (up 2.02%)
Why it matters
Above-trend growth combined with easing inflation represents an optimistic scenario. Yet downside growth risks and upside inflation risks keep policy finely balanced. Elevated asset valuations and concentrated investment trends add another layer of consideration.
What to watch
- Inflation trajectory into mid-year
• March 18 Summary of Economic Projections
• Signs of stress in credit or Treasury markets
• Timing of potential rate adjustments
The bottom line
Policy remains data-dependent, leaving markets responsive to each economic release.
U.S. trade deficit reaches $901 billion in 2025
The big picture
The U.S. trade deficit totaled $901.5 billion in 2025, nearly unchanged from the prior year despite tariff measures.
Driving the news
December’s deficit widened to $70.3 billion as companies adjusted to tariff shifts and front-loaded imports. While a 10% blanket tariff and reciprocal measures were implemented, some policies were later modified, and negotiations continue.
By the numbers
- $901.5 billion — total 2025 trade deficit
• 0.2% decline — year-over-year change
• $70.3 billion — December deficit
• $3.43 trillion — total exports
• $4.33 trillion — total imports
• $218.8 billion — goods deficit with EU
• $202.1 billion — goods deficit with China
• $196.9 billion — goods deficit with Mexico
Why it matters
Trade balances influence currency dynamics, manufacturing competitiveness, and broader economic narratives. The limited change suggests structural supply-chain forces may outweigh short-term policy actions.
What to watch
- Progress in tariff negotiations
• Post front-loading import trends
• U.S.–EU and U.S.–China developments
• Dollar strength and export conditions
The bottom line
Structural factors continue to shape trade flows, even amid policy adjustments.
NEXT WEEK’S KEY EVENTS
Economic Calendar: February 23 – February 27, 2026 (ET)
MONDAY, Feb. 23
• 8:00 am — Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks
TUESDAY, Feb. 24
• 8:00 am — Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speaks
• 9:00 am — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Dec.)
• 9:00 am — Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks
• 9:30 am — Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speaks
• 10:00 am — Consumer Confidence (Feb.)
WEDNESDAY, Feb. 25
• 9:35 am — Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks
THURSDAY, Feb. 26
• 8:30 am — Initial Jobless Claims
FRIDAY, Feb. 27
• 8:30 am — Producer Price Index (Jan., delayed)
• 10:00 am — Construction Spending (Nov., delayed)
Impact on Precious Metals Markets
Christopher Waller (Mon)
• Hawkish tone → supports higher-for-longer outlook; softer metals bias
• Dovish tone → reinforces easing expectations; constructive for metals
Fed communication can meaningfully shape rate expectations.
Austan Goolsbee (Tue)
• Hawkish → favors restrictive stance; modest headwind for metals
• Dovish → supports policy flexibility; positive for metals
Case-Shiller Index (Tue)
• Strong housing → resilience narrative; mildly negative for metals
• Cooling prices → growth moderation theme; mildly supportive
Consumer Confidence (Tue)
• Improving sentiment → firmer growth expectations; softer metals tone
• Declining sentiment → caution narrative; supportive backdrop
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu)
• Rising claims → labor softening; constructive for metals
• Low claims → labor strength; may pressure metals
Producer Price Index (Fri)
• Elevated PPI → inflation persistence; potential headwind
• Cooling PPI → easing inflation theme; supportive
Continue the Conversation
Economic crosscurrents, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical developments continue to shape the landscape for gold, silver, energy, and currencies. Understanding how these forces interact is essential in periods of transition.
For deeper insights, ongoing analysis, and educational resources on precious metals and sound money principles, we invite you to continue learning at our website. Stay informed. Stay prepared.
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This publication is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Prime Asset Group is not a registered investment advisor. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Please consult with a licensed financial professional before making financial decisions.
